Economists from the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) examined the relationship between different weather events and economic growth across the UK’s main industries over the last decade.
They found that since 2005, periods of very cold weather have seen quarterly GDP growth on average 0.6 percentage points lower than typical levels. When minimum temperatures are one degree Celsius lower than average, quarterly GDP is on average £2.5bn lower. This is a bigger negative effect than any other form of adverse weather, including snowfall, heat waves or flooding.
The fall in GDP results from lower output across a number of industries and lost productivity as transport links and staff availability suffer. Those who do get to work on particularly poor weather days often meet a skeleton staff, hindering productivity.
Whilst cold has the biggest negative effect on the economy, different industry sectors are impacted by different forms of extreme weather. For example, professional services and accommodation and food are the sectors that take the biggest hit from heavy rainfall. High rainfall has a big impact on office-based jobs, with just ten millimetres above average costing the economy £86m in a single quarter. In January 2015 rainfall was 26.5mm above the 2004-2014 January average of 126.8mm – potentially costing the economy £76.3m over the quarter.
The research also explores the resilience of businesses of different sectors and sizes. The information and communications sector is one of the few to see positive growth during poor weather. Cebr concluded that this is because the sector leads the way in using cloud-based technology allowing employees to work from home. On average, nearly two thirds (65%) of all companies in this sector use some form of cloud technology compared to just 15-30% of all other businesses.
But the report warns that smaller businesses are at a disadvantage in terms of poor weather, as Scott Corfe, Head of UK Macroeconomics, Cebr explains: “Many small offices are unprepared for such events as they often lack remote access to their work due to security concerns and a lack of infrastructure. This is compounded in many cases by inadequate internet connections or computing power at staff homes. In addition SMEs tend to suffer more than their larger counterparts who can spread the setup and maintenance costs of remote working infrastructure across many more staff.”
Kevin Scott-Cowell, CEO of 8x8 Solutions, says, “Bad weather hits businesses hard, and medium-sized companies are more vulnerable than their larger counterparts. Until now, the technical infrastructure to enable remote working and guard against disruption has been out of reach for many companies, but cloud solutions are changing this. It’s now affordable for any size business to put in place a plan and deploy the right remote working technology. This can make sure it’s business as usual for customers, whatever the weather.”
The research is released in the run up to Business Continuity Awareness Week, an initiative run by the Business Continuity Institute. Lyndon Bird FBCI, Technical Director at the BCI, said, “This research is a timely reminder of the need for companies to adopt business continuity management best practice. That means having the plans and technology in place to manage risks to the smooth running of their organisation or delivery of a service, ensuring continuity of critical functions in the event of a disruption, and effective recovery afterwards.”
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